This is the Age of the Incredible Shrinking Everything. Home prices， the stock market， G.D.P.， corporate profits， employment： they‘re all a fraction of what they once were. Yet amid this carnage there is one thing that， surprisingly， has continued to grow： the paycheck of the average worker. Companies are slashing payrolls： 3.6 million people have lost their jobs since the recession started， with half of those getting laid off in just the past three months. Yet average hourly wages jumped almost four per cent in the past year. It’s harder and harder to find and keep a job， but if you‘ve got one you may well be making more than you did twelve months ago.

　　This combination of rising unemployment and higher wages seems improbable. But， as it turns out， it‘s what history would lead us to expect. Even during the early years of the Great Depression， manufacturing workers actually saw their real wages rise， and wage cuts have been scarce in every recession since. Oil and wheat prices may rise and fall instantaneously to reflect supply and demand， but wages are “sticky”： even when the economy goes bad， it takes a lot to make them fall.

　　It‘s not because businesses are generous that wages are sticky； it’s because employers are worried. In part， bosses are afraid of what economists call “adverse selection”： if they cut wages， it‘s the least productive workers who would be the most likely to stay， while the best workers would start looking elsewhere. （Even in a weak economy， businesses still compete for talent.） In a 1997 study of almost two hundred employers， the economists Carl Campbell and Kunal Kamlani found that the threat of losing their best employees was a major reason that bosses didn’t cut wages.

　　Even more important is the impact of wage cuts on morale. After the 1990-91 recession， the economist Truman Bewley interviewed managers and labor officials at more than two hundred companies and found that most believed that wage cuts wreck employee morale and eat away at productivity. Whatever money they‘d save by cutting wages， bosses assume， would be cancelled out by the decline in effort and the breakdown of trust that wage cuts would create. Not everyone believes this： in the past month， both Hewlett-Packard and FedEx have announced plans for pay cuts. But generally， when sales and profits drop， wages aren’t cut， even in firms undergoing layoffs. Of course， layoffs don‘t exactly help morale， but， as one of the bosses that Bewley interviewed coldly put it， they “get the misery out the door.” Cutting wages keeps the misery around.

　　Today‘s sticky wages aren’t just the result of custom， though. They‘ve also stayed high because of the most unusual aspect of this recession： even as the economy has cratered， American workers have become more productive， not less. Productivity—how much output workers produce per hour of work—is the key to a healthy economy. Historically， productivity has been “procyclical”： it rose during booms and fell during recessions. But not this time. Even as the economy did a cliff dive in the last quarter， productivity rose an impressive 3.1 per cent. And since， in theory， workers get paid more the more productive they are， their increased productivity has helped them avoid pay cuts.

　　In times as grim as these， stable wages and higher productivity seem like good things. But they come at a price. The reason that companies have remained so productive despite the slowdown has a lot to do with one of the most celebrated efficiency gains of recent years： the so-called just-in-time economy. In past recessions， companies often delayed firing people， because， in their uncertainty over the precise state of their business， they preferred to keep people around rather than go to the trouble of firing them and having to hire replacements later. In economist-speak， companies “hoarded labor.” But during the past two decades companies have got significantly better at responding quickly to changes in the marketplace. Retailers carry less inventory； manufacturers have shorter lead times on production. This made the system as a whole more efficient， and each individual worker more productive. But it has also made redundant workers more expendable， and labor hoarding a thing of the past.

　　Bad times have always meant job losses， of course. But what‘s distinctive about the speed and depth of today’s job cuts is that， even before the recession hit， American companies were， by historical standards， running lean operations. While the economy grew at a respectable rate for much of this decade， hiring did not. So one might have thought that companies would have had less room to slash payrolls， since they were already relatively slim. Instead， the same companies that were slow to hire after the last recession have been fast to fire during this one. G.D.P.， after all， actually grew for much of 2008. Yet every month companies were cutting jobs. And after the credit crisis erupted， in September， companies wasted no time： as fast as consumer spending was plummeting， businesses were cutting payrolls even more aggressively. Companies have always wanted to do more with less； nowadays it‘s a positive obsession.

　　For the employed， then， this recession may be less than awful—if， that is， you can forget about the value of your home and your 401（k）。 But the very factors that benefit people with jobs—higher productivity and sticky wages—make prospects bleaker for those without them. That‘s one reason that it was important for the stimulus package to extend and increase unemployment benefits， as well as create jobs. We’re a more productive， more efficient economy than ever， but that‘s cold comfort when you’re on the dole.

　　這是一個(gè)一切都縮水的時(shí)代，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格，股票市場(chǎng)，GDP，公司利潤(rùn)，就業(yè)率：這些通通都變成了曾經(jīng)的一小部分。令人驚奇的是，在這場(chǎng)大衰退中，有一項(xiàng)東西繼續(xù)在增長(zhǎng)，那就是熟練工人的薪水。公司縮減了工資名單：自從經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退開始，已經(jīng)有360萬(wàn)人失業(yè)，其中一半人是在剛剛過(guò)去的三個(gè)月里丟掉了工作。然而，平均每小時(shí)的工資在去年增長(zhǎng)了差不多4%.找工作變得越來(lái)越難，但是如果你已經(jīng)有一份工作的話，你可能比十二個(gè)月以前掙得更多。

　　這種高失業(yè)率和高工資的組合看起來(lái)有些不可思議，但是，這是被歷史所證明的事實(shí)。即使在上世紀(jì)的大蕭條時(shí)期，產(chǎn)業(yè)工人的工資也是在上漲的，在衰退時(shí)減薪是罕見的。石油和小麥的價(jià)格會(huì)隨著供求關(guān)系的變化而變化，但是工資是“剛性的”：即使當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)不好的時(shí)候，想要讓降薪也是很困難的。

　　工資的“剛性”并不是因?yàn)樯倘丝犊?，這是因?yàn)楣椭鲹?dān)心被經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家稱為的“逆向選擇”：一旦降薪，越平庸的工人越可能留下，而越是出色的工人越可能跳槽。（即使是在經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)不好的時(shí)候，商業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)就是人才的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。）在 1997年的一項(xiàng)研究中，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Carl Campbell 和Kunal Kamlani 發(fā)現(xiàn)老板不去降薪最大的原因就是怕失去他們最好的員工。

　　更重要的是降薪會(huì)影響士氣。經(jīng)歷1990到1991年的衰退之后，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Truman Bewley 和超過(guò)200家公司的經(jīng)理和人事主管面談之后發(fā)現(xiàn)大多數(shù)人認(rèn)為降薪會(huì)有損士氣并最終影響生產(chǎn)。老板們認(rèn)為降薪省下來(lái)的開支會(huì)被降薪所引發(fā)的工作效率和信任的減損所抵消。并不是每個(gè)老板都相信這一套，上個(gè)月Hewlett-Packard 和 FedEx 兩家公司就宣布降薪。但是，一般來(lái)說(shuō)當(dāng)銷售和利潤(rùn)下降的時(shí)候，即使去裁員也不能降薪。當(dāng)然，裁員對(duì)士氣也沒好處，但是正如一個(gè)老板Bewley在采訪中所說(shuō)的那樣“裁員的苦惱在公司外，降薪的苦惱在公司內(nèi)部。”

　　雖然如今工資的剛性并不僅僅是慣例的結(jié)果，水平的工資是又有經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期不尋常的景象所致：經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)，美國(guó)工人的工作效率更高了，而不是更低。生產(chǎn)效率（工人每小時(shí)的產(chǎn)出）是健康經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)鍵。從歷史的角度看，工作效率是循環(huán)的，經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮是增長(zhǎng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)下降。但這次不是，即使經(jīng)濟(jì)在上個(gè)季度跳水的時(shí)候，生產(chǎn)效率還是增長(zhǎng)了3.1%.理論上講，工人效率越高工資越高，正是生產(chǎn)效率的提高避免了減薪。

　　在如此嚴(yán)酷的時(shí)期內(nèi)，穩(wěn)定的工資和高效率也是好的。但這也是有代價(jià)的，公司在衰退中保持高效率和近年來(lái)取得的一項(xiàng)成果有關(guān)：它被稱為“及時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)”（“just-in-time economy”），在以往的衰退中，公司常常推遲裁員，因?yàn)樗麄儗?duì)公司的狀況還不是很確定，他們把員工留下來(lái)以免陷入今天裁員明天就要雇人代替的麻煩之中。用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)術(shù)語(yǔ)叫公司儲(chǔ)備勞動(dòng)力。但是在過(guò)去二十年間，公司對(duì)市場(chǎng)變化采取更為迅速的反應(yīng)會(huì)更好一些。零售商少存貨，制造商縮短制造周期。這使系統(tǒng)作為一個(gè)整體更加有效率，每個(gè)工人更加有工作效率。但這使得多余的工人越發(fā)昂貴，存蓄勞動(dòng)力成為過(guò)去。

　　當(dāng)然，衰退期意味著失業(yè)。但是區(qū)別在于裁員速度和深度，以前當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰弱襲來(lái)，美國(guó)公司都保持最少雇員的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。而經(jīng)濟(jì)在這個(gè)十年大部分都保持了增長(zhǎng)。但是工作卻沒有增長(zhǎng)。所以有人會(huì)認(rèn)為公司們已經(jīng)沒有空間在縮減他們的工資單了，因?yàn)樗麄円呀?jīng)很“瘦”了。相反，上一次衰退事裁員速度很慢的公司這次裁員都很快。畢竟，GDP在08年實(shí)際上增長(zhǎng)了，但是每月都有公司在裁員。信用危機(jī)九月爆發(fā)之后，公司們沒有浪費(fèi)時(shí)間，和消費(fèi)者縮減花費(fèi)一樣快，公司裁員甚至更為猛烈。公司想要做更多，如今這是一個(gè)積極的思想。

　　對(duì)于那些有工作的人來(lái)說(shuō)，這次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退還沒那么可怕，至少可以讓你忘卻房子和汽油的價(jià)格。但是正是使得有工作的人收益的因素——高效率和剛性工資——使得失業(yè)者的前景更加暗淡。這也正是增加失業(yè)者福利和創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)重要的原因。我們比以往更有效率，但是對(duì)于那些領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救濟(jì)金的人來(lái)說(shuō)起不到任何安慰作用。